{ "$schema_version": "1.0", "publication": "Umran / عُمران", "compiled": "2026-07-26", "license": "CC BY 4.0 — reuse with attribution to Umran and to the original source listed per figure.", "methodology_note": "Every figure carries its own source URL and a verification status. 'verified' = the figure was read directly from the cited primary or near-primary source. 'reported' = the figure comes from a credible secondary report citing a primary source we did not open directly. 'unverified' = we could not confirm the figure against a primary source and it is published with an explicit on-page flag. Ranges are published as ranges, never collapsed to a midpoint.", "currency_note": "All monetary figures are nominal US dollars at current prices unless stated. Euro figures converted at the rate cited in the source article, not at a rate we chose.", "charts": [ { "id": "chart-1", "article": "article-1", "eyebrow": "CHART 1 OF 2", "title": "Syria's reconstruction bill dwarfs every pool of money currently on the table", "subtitle": "USD billions, nominal. Reconstruction estimate covers damaged physical assets only, 2011–2024.", "type": "horizontal_bar_with_range", "unit": "USD billions", "series": [ { "label": "Reconstruction cost of damaged physical assets", "label_ar": "كلفة إعادة بناء الأصول المادية المتضررة", "value": 216, "range_low": 140, "range_high": 345, "range_note": "World Bank publishes a range of $140bn–$345bn with $216bn as its conservative best estimate. Render the full range as a band; do not show the point estimate alone.", "verification": "verified", "source_name": "World Bank, Syria Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment 2011–2024", "source_date": "2025-10-21", "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/21/syria-s-post-conflict-reconstruction-costs-estimated-at-216-billion" }, { "label": "Direct physical damage recorded, 2011–2024", "label_ar": "الأضرار المادية المباشرة المسجّلة", "value": 108, "verification": "verified", "source_name": "World Bank", "source_date": "2025-10-21", "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/21/syria-s-post-conflict-reconstruction-costs-estimated-at-216-billion" }, { "label": "Investment MoUs signed since Dec 2024 (disclosed value, 40 agreements)", "label_ar": "مذكرات التفاهم الاستثمارية الموقّعة", "value": 25.9, "verification": "verified", "caveat": "These are memoranda of understanding, not committed capital. The source explicitly states that 'most commitments remain MoUs, with very few progressing toward implementation.' Chart must carry this caveat as an annotation.", "source_name": "Karam Shaar Advisory, 'Mapping MoUs in Syria: Shifting Investment Agendas', Syria in Figures Issue 14", "source_date": "2025-11", "source_url": "https://karamshaar.com/syria-in-figures/syria-investment-gulf-turkey-new-government/" }, { "label": "Nominal GDP, 2024", "label_ar": "الناتج المحلي الإجمالي الاسمي 2024", "value": 21.4, "verification": "verified", "note": "Down from $67.5bn in 2011. Reconstruction cost is ~10× this figure, per the World Bank's own framing.", "source_name": "World Bank, citing Syria Macro-Fiscal Assessment", "source_date": "2025-10-21", "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/21/syria-s-post-conflict-reconstruction-costs-estimated-at-216-billion" }, { "label": "International pledges, Brussels IX conference (all donors, 2025–26)", "label_ar": "التعهدات الدولية — مؤتمر بروكسل التاسع", "value": 6.3, "value_original": "€5.8 billion", "verification": "reported", "caveat": "This is humanitarian and recovery support for Syria AND the region including refugee-hosting countries — it is not $6.3bn of reconstruction capital for Syria itself. Do not present it as such. Down from €7.5bn pledged the previous year.", "source_name": "The Arab Weekly / EU Brussels IX 'Standing with Syria' conference, 17 March 2025", "source_date": "2025-03-17", "source_url": "https://thearabweekly.com/eu-conference-pledges-63-billion-syrias-recovery-boosts-legitimacy-new-rulers", "secondary_source_url": "https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/international-ministerial-meetings/2025/03/17/" } ], "annotations": [ { "target": "Investment MoUs signed since Dec 2024", "text": "MoUs are announcements, not money. Very few have reached implementation.", "text_ar": "مذكرات التفاهم إعلانات، لا أموال. قليل منها وصل إلى التنفيذ." } ], "chart_note": "The World Bank cautions that 'given the protracted conflict and related methodological constraints, the report findings are subject to significant uncertainty.' Figures are orders of magnitude, not precise accounts." }, { "id": "chart-2", "article": "article-1", "eyebrow": "CHART 2 OF 2", "title": "Rebuilding costs twice what the damage was recorded at — and housing is where the gap is widest", "subtitle": "USD billions. Recorded direct damage vs. estimated reconstruction cost, by asset class.", "type": "grouped_bar", "unit": "USD billions", "categories": [ { "category": "Infrastructure", "category_ar": "البنية التحتية", "damage": 52, "reconstruction": 82, "multiplier": 1.58, "share_of_total_damage_pct": 48, "verification": "verified" }, { "category": "Residential buildings", "category_ar": "المباني السكنية", "damage": 33, "reconstruction": 75, "multiplier": 2.27, "verification": "verified" }, { "category": "Non-residential buildings", "category_ar": "المباني غير السكنية", "damage": 23, "reconstruction": 59, "multiplier": 2.57, "verification": "verified" } ], "totals": { "damage": 108, "reconstruction": 216, "note": "Component figures sum to $108bn damage and $216bn reconstruction, matching the reported totals." }, "source_name": "World Bank, Syria Physical Damage and Reconstruction Assessment 2011–2024", "source_date": "2025-10-21", "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/21/syria-s-post-conflict-reconstruction-costs-estimated-at-216-billion", "full_report_url": "https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099102025095540101", "chart_note": "The gap between damage and reconstruction cost reflects rebuilding to current standards and prices rather than replacing like-for-like. The World Bank does not publish sector-level disaggregation below these three classes.", "geographic_note": { "text": "Aleppo, Rif Dimashq and Homs were the most severely affected governorates by total damage; Aleppo and Rif Dimashq are expected to require the largest reconstruction investments.", "verification": "verified", "figures_available": false, "flag": "⚠ The World Bank press release names these governorates but does not publish per-governorate dollar figures. Do NOT chart governorate values — we do not have them." } }, { "id": "chart-3", "article": "article-2", "eyebrow": "CHART 1 OF 2", "title": "Inflation collapsed, the budget flipped to surplus, and growth turned — all within three years", "subtitle": "Syria macro indicators, 2023–2025. World Bank provisional estimates.", "type": "multi_panel", "panels": [ { "panel": "Consumer price inflation", "panel_ar": "التضخم", "unit": "% year-on-year", "data": [ { "year": 2023, "value": 129.9, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2024, "value": 72.1, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2025, "value": 11.5, "status": "provisional" } ] }, { "panel": "Real GDP growth", "panel_ar": "نمو الناتج المحلي الحقيقي", "unit": "% annual", "data": [ { "year": 2023, "value": 0.3, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2024, "value": 0.9, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2025, "value": null, "range_low": 2, "range_high": 4, "status": "provisional_range", "render_note": "MUST be drawn as a range band. The World Bank publishes 2.0–4.0%, not a point estimate." } ] }, { "panel": "Fiscal balance", "panel_ar": "الرصيد المالي", "unit": "% of GDP", "data": [ { "year": 2023, "value": -7.7, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2024, "value": -5.1, "status": "provisional" }, { "year": 2025, "value": 1.4, "status": "provisional" } ] } ], "verification": "verified", "source_name": "World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook — Syrian Arab Republic, April 2026", "source_date": "2026-04", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf", "chart_note": "All figures are marked provisional by the World Bank and 'may be subject to revision and may diverge from official projections.' The same report warns that 'years of conflict have disrupted statistical systems and data production, increasing uncertainty around economic estimates.' This caveat must appear on the chart, not only in the article.", "contested_figures_flag": { "text": "Syrian official remarks have reportedly put 2025 growth as high as 30–35%, against the World Bank's 2.0–4.0% range. We do not publish the official figure as fact.", "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ UNVERIFIED — sourced only to secondary summary reporting; we did not locate the original official statement. Publish only with the unverified badge, or omit." }, "context_figures": [ { "label": "Poverty rate, $3.00/day 2021 PPP", "values": { "2023": 20.1, "2024": 21.1, "2025": 20.9 }, "unit": "% of population", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, { "label": "Poverty rate, $4.20/day 2021 PPP (lower-middle-income line)", "values": { "2023": 44.5, "2024": 46.8, "2025": 46.8 }, "unit": "% of population", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, { "label": "Households facing difficulty meeting basic needs", "value": 90, "unit": "% (approx.)", "verification": "verified", "note": "WFP Minimum Expenditure Basket was SYP 2.2 million in December 2025 (~USD 206 at the official rate), roughly triple the official minimum wage, though 25% lower year-on-year.", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, { "label": "⚠ Population below poverty line, alternative figure", "value": 90.5, "unit": "%", "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ CONFLICTS with World Bank MPO poverty rates above (20.9% at $3.00/day, 46.8% at $4.20/day). The ~90% figure circulating in press reporting appears to describe households struggling to meet basic needs, not a formal poverty headcount. DO NOT chart these together. We publish the World Bank series and describe the ~90% figure in words, labelled." } ] }, { "id": "chart-4", "article": "article-2", "eyebrow": "CHART 2 OF 2", "title": "The single biggest economic change of 2026 was territorial, not financial", "subtitle": "Crude oil output from Syria's northeastern fields, barrels per day.", "type": "bar_with_projection", "unit": "barrels per day", "data": [ { "label": "During the war (SDF-administered)", "label_ar": "خلال الحرب", "value": 10000, "verification": "reported", "source_name": "Al Jazeera, 'It's expensive: Syria's electricity has improved, but challenges remain'", "source_date": "2026-07-13", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain" }, { "label": "Now, after the government moved into the northeast (2026)", "label_ar": "بعد دخول الحكومة إلى الشمال الشرقي", "value": 100000, "verification": "reported", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain" }, { "label": "Stated potential by end-2026", "label_ar": "الطاقة المحتملة بنهاية 2026", "value": 200000, "is_projection": true, "verification": "reported", "render_note": "MUST be visually distinguished as a projection — hatched fill or 40% opacity — and labelled 'potential, not actual'.", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain" } ], "companion_figure": { "label": "Government share of national oil production", "label_ar": "حصة الحكومة من إنتاج النفط الوطني", "before": 20, "after": 88, "unit": "%", "event": "February 2026 — transitional government regained control of key oil and gas areas", "verification": "verified", "source_name": "World Bank, Macro Poverty Outlook, April 2026", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, "chart_note": "Barrel figures come from a single news report citing unnamed production data and should be treated as order-of-magnitude. The 20%→88% production-share figure is separately confirmed by the World Bank and is the more robust of the two.", "related_energy_figures": [ { "label": "Electricity generation mix, 2023 (pre-transition)", "breakdown": { "natural_gas_pct": 52, "oil_pct": 45, "hydro_pct": 3 }, "verification": "reported", "source_name": "IEA, cited by Al Jazeera", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain", "note": "Percentages as reported: gas 52%, oil close to 45%, hydro 3%, solar less than that. Sums to ~100% with rounding." }, { "label": "World Bank grant for electricity supply and sector development", "value": 146000000, "unit": "USD", "date": "2025-06", "verification": "reported", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain" }, { "label": "State electricity supply, Damascus, July 2026", "value": "5–6 consecutive hours before a cut", "verification": "reported", "note": "Resident testimony, not a national metered figure. Explicitly not a national average.", "source_url": "https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/7/13/its-expensive-syrias-electricity-has-improved-but-challenges-remain" }, { "label": "⚠ Installed generation capacity vs. national demand", "capacity_mw": 5000, "demand_mw": 7000, "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ UNVERIFIED — these figures appear in secondary summaries attributed to Syrian government statements and a law-firm sector guide we could not open directly. DO NOT chart. Use in prose only with the unverified badge, or drop." }, { "label": "⚠ Floating power ships added by Türkiye and Qatar", "value_mw": 800, "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ UNVERIFIED — secondary summary only, no primary source located. Do not publish without further checking." }, { "label": "⚠ National grid supply, ~4 hours/day (July 2026)", "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ CONFLICTS with the Al Jazeera field reporting of 5–6 consecutive hours in Damascus and with April 2026 ministerial claims of 24-hour supply in some areas. Supply varies enormously by governorate and by month; there is no reliable single national figure. We do not publish one." } ] } ], "figures_used_in_prose": [ { "figure": "1.6 million refugees and 1.9 million IDPs returned since December 2024", "as_of": "2026-05", "verification": "verified", "source_name": "UNHCR Syria Operational Update, May 2026", "source_url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/123039", "note": "The World Bank MPO (April 2026) gives 1.5m refugees as of 19 March 2026 and 1.7m IDPs as of 5 Feb 2026 — consistent with UNHCR on a lag. Always date-stamp this figure; it moves monthly." }, { "figure": "15.6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance", "verification": "reported", "source_url": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/download/123039" }, { "figure": "2025 Syria humanitarian plan only 35% funded; assistance reaching under 10% of displaced families", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, { "figure": "2.45 million children out of school; 1.6 million more at risk of dropping out; roughly one in three schools unusable; over 7,000 schools damaged or destroyed", "verification": "reported", "source_name": "UNICEF Syria", "source_url": "https://www.unicef.org/syria/education", "flag": "⚠ The 2.45m figure is dated 2025. Confirm against the latest UNICEF Syria situation report before republishing in 2026 copy." }, { "figure": "DP World agreement to develop and operate Tartous port, USD 800 million; operations began mid-November 2025", "verification": "reported", "source_name": "Khaleej Times; Middle East Eye / Lloyd's List via Karam Shaar Advisory", "source_url": "https://www.khaleejtimes.com/uae/dp-world-deal-syria-tartous-port", "secondary_source_url": "https://karamshaar.com/syria-in-figures/syria-investment-gulf-turkey-new-government/" }, { "figure": "USD 7 billion power deal with a Qatari–Turkish–US consortium led by UCC Holding, May 2025", "verification": "reported", "source_name": "Reuters, via Karam Shaar Advisory", "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/syria-signs-7-billion-power-deal-with-qatars-ucc-holding-led-consortium-2025-05-29/" }, { "figure": "ACWA Power MoU to explore up to 2.5 GW of solar and wind capacity", "verification": "reported", "source_url": "https://www.acwapower.com/news/ministry-of-energy-of-the-syrian-arab-republic-and-acwa-power-sign-joint-development-agreement-to-explore-develop-solar-and-wind-projects/" }, { "figure": "USD 28 billion in investment announced by President Ahmed al-Sharaa at the Future Investment Initiative, Riyadh, Oct 2025 — against USD 25.9 billion in disclosed MoU values identified independently across 40 agreements", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://karamshaar.com/syria-in-figures/syria-investment-gulf-turkey-new-government/" }, { "figure": "Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act of 2019 repealed by Section 6211 of the NDAA 2026", "verification": "reported", "source_name": "Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP; US Senate Foreign Relations Committee", "source_url": "https://www.curtis.com/our-firm/news/u-s-repeals-the-caesar-act-in-latest-move-to-ease-syria-sanctions", "secondary_source_url": "https://www.state.gov/syria-sanctions" }, { "figure": "Central Bank of Syria executed its first SWIFT transfer in 14 years on 20 November 2025", "verification": "reported", "source_name": "SANA; Arab News", "source_url": "https://sana.sy/en/economic/2279063/", "secondary_source_url": "https://www.arabnews.com/node/2605031/business-economy" }, { "figure": "Central Bank permitted local banks and payment firms to work with global payment companies (Visa, Mastercard), May 2026", "verification": "reported", "source_url": "https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2026/05/syrias-central-bank-allows-banks-to-work-with-global-payment-companies/" }, { "figure": "New Syrian pound rollout launched 1 January 2026", "verification": "reported", "flag": "⚠ Sourced to secondary summary reporting. Confirm against a Central Bank of Syria announcement before republishing.", "source_url": "https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2025/11/syrian-central-bank-drafts-regulatory-framework-for-swifts-return/" }, { "figure": "Air traffic more than doubled; port traffic increased over sixfold; monthly imports through Tartous and Lattakia averaged 300,000 tonnes, exports 52,000 tonnes, including Syria's first heavy crude shipment in 14 years", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf", "note": "World Bank explicitly notes these gains are 'albeit from very low levels'. Never quote the multiples without that caveat." }, { "figure": "2025 drought cut vegetation indices by 21% and drove wheat output to historic lows", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/65cf93926fdb3ea23b72f277fc249a72-0500042021/related/mpo-syr.pdf" }, { "figure": "75 branches of foreign companies registered in Syria since the start of 2026", "verification": "unverified", "flag": "⚠ UNVERIFIED — attributed to The Syria Report via a search summary; the underlying article is behind a subscription and was not read directly. Do not publish without a subscription check.", "source_url": "https://syria-report.com/" }, { "figure": "Nominal GDP fell from USD 67.5 billion (2011) to an estimated USD 21.4 billion (2024); real GDP declined ~53% between 2010 and 2022", "verification": "verified", "source_url": "https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/21/syria-s-post-conflict-reconstruction-costs-estimated-at-216-billion" } ], "known_gaps": [ "No reliable national average for daily electricity supply hours exists. Ministerial claims (24h in some areas, April 2026), field reporting (5–6h in Damascus, July 2026) and secondary summaries (~4h nationally) are mutually inconsistent because they measure different things in different places. Umran will not publish a single national figure until a metered source exists.", "No per-governorate dollar figures for damage or reconstruction cost are public. The World Bank names Aleppo, Rif Dimashq and Homs as worst-affected but publishes no values. Any governorate-level chart would be fabricated.", "No public data on how much of the USD 25.9bn in signed MoUs has actually been disbursed. This is the single most important missing number in Syrian reconstruction reporting and is the reason Umran's Project Tracker exists.", "Remittance inflows are effectively unmeasured post-2020. World Bank series for Syria has no recent observations. Any 'diaspora sends $X billion' claim should be treated as unsourced.", "Housing units rebuilt, schools reopened, and hospitals restored are not published as a national time series by any body we could find.", "UNICEF's 2.45 million out-of-school figure is dated 2025 and may not reflect the return of over 1.6 million refugees since." ] }